LABOUR will remain the largest party in the Senedd after today's election, but will fall short of an overall majority, an opinion poll carried out on the eve of polling day has predicted.

According to the latest poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru and Cardiff University Labour will lose three seats, leaving it with 27 – three short of a majority.

Meanwhile the poll, carried out between Monday, May 2 and Wednesday, May 4, also predicted Plaid Cymru will win 12 seats – one more than in 2011 – while the number of Conservative AMs will decrease by three to 11.

If the poll is correct the Welsh Liberal Democrats will be left with just two AMs, down from five, and the remaining eight seats will be won by Ukip, which previously had no AMs in the Senedd.

This means no party will be left with an overall majority, raising the possibility of a coalition government – the second in Wales after the Labour-Plaid deal in 2007.

This paints a slightly worse picture for Labour and Plaid than the previous poll, carried out between Tuesday, April 19 and Friday, April 22, with both parties down one seat comparatively.

Meanwhile both the Conservatives and Ukip are predicted to gain one seat more than they were two weeks ago, while the Liberal Democrats are still predicted to be left with only two AMs.

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre said: “Labour thus remain well ahead of the field.

Though their support levels in this poll are close to those in 2007, their worst-ever Assembly election, no other party has yet mounted a strong challenge to them.

“This is despite the party having lost considerable ground since 2011.”

Professor Scully added the poll results would be “very disappointing” for Plaid Cymru, but somewhat more encouraging for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, both of which saw declines in support throughout the election campaign reversed.

“Meanwhile UKIP’s support has defied the expectations of some observers and remained impressively robust throughout the campaign,” he said.

“Unless our poll is vastly over-stating their support, or that support fails to turn out, UKIP are still likely to win regional list seats tomorrow across most, if not all, of Wales’ five electoral regions.”

Polls are open from 7am until 10pm tomorrow.